General session for earthquake forecasting and hazard quantification
Convenors: D. Jackson (USA), X.C. Yin (China), Akio Yoshida (Japan)
Session Overview: Dave Jackson (15 minutes)
An important goal for earthquake studies is to predict observable features of the "earthquake system", that is the interacting material properties and state variables that cause earthquakes and are affected by earthquakes. Accurate and specific predictions of individual large earthquakes may be impossible in the foreseeable future (a much debated proposition), but there are many other types of prediction, in the broader sense, that would have practical benefits and would help to advance our understanding of earthquake science. Such "predictions" include probabilistic forecasts of future earthquake activity, predictions of displacements on specific faults or fault groups, predictions of ground motion that would result from hypothetical future earthquakes, and predictions that geophysical phenomena such as accelerated deformation or variations in seismicity should presage large earthquakes. The session will address questions related to the predictablility of features of the earthquake system and the use of computer models to aid in constructing and testing such predictions, and the expectations that can rightly be placed on earthquake analogs such as laboratory and computer models.
Session Plenary: (1 Hour)
David D. Jackson, Xiang-Chu Yin, Akio Yoshida, and Jacobo Bielak will address the following specific questions:
Detailed Session: (2 Hours 45 mins)
David D. Jackson and Yan Kagan (10 mins) Global Earthquake Potential, 1999 Zhou Shengkui, Wang Chengmin and Ma Li (10 mins) Application of Artificial Intelligence in Earthquake Forecasting Ma Li, Zhu Lieyuan and Shi Yaolin (10 mins) Attempts at using seismicity indicators for the prediction of large earthquakes by genetic algorithm-neural network method. Jean-Bernard Minster and Nadya Williams (10 mins) Systematic Global Testing of Intermediate-Term Earthquake Prediction Algorithms Akio Yoshida and Kohji Hosono (10 mins) Evaluation of spatio-temporal seismicity change XiangChu Yin, XueZhong Cheng, YuCang Wang, HaiTao Wang, KeYin Peng, Yongxian Zhang, and JianCang Zhuang (10 mins) Development of A New Approach for Earthquake Prediction: Load/Unload Response Ratio Kevin McCue (10 mins) The Cause of Australian Intraplate Tectonism Peter Mora and David Place (10 mins) Accelerating energy release prior to large events in simulated earthquake cycles: implications for earthquake forecasting Michael Winter, Steven Jaume and Russell Cuthbertson (10 mins) Determination of site response and attenuation in Brisbane, Australia Fabien Coutel and Peter Mora (10 mins) Site amplification quantification through simulation of ground motion Discussion and comments (65 minutes)